Amazon Deforestation 2024-2026: What Changed

Short answer (what changed): From 2024 to 2026, the biggest change is that some clearing trends improved (especially in Brazil’s Amazon and the Cerrado). However, 2024 still had very high Amazon Basin deforestation and record fire damage in primary forests. Track deforestation (clearing) and fire-driven forest loss (degradation) separately, and use the right dataset and time window.

• Amazon Basin, 2024: MAAP estimated over 1.7 million hectares deforested (5th highest since 2002).
• Fires, 2024: MAAP reported 2.8 million hectares of primary-forest fire impact (record), mostly in Brazil and Bolivia.
• Brazil official annual clearing trend: INPE’s PRODES reported 5,796 km2 deforested in the 12 months ending July 2025 (down 11%, lowest in 11 years).
• Cerrado trend: INPE DETER alerts showed clearing fell to 1,905 km2 (down from 2,025 km2 the prior year).
• 2026 outlook: Brazil’s government says the Amazon could reach the lowest rate in the series by 2026 if current policies hold.

Is Amazon deforestation decreasing right now?

It depends on where you look and what you count. In Brazil, the official annual estimate from INPE PRODES shows a recent decline in clearing. Across the whole Amazon Basin, 2024 was still a high-deforestation year in MAAP’s basin-wide estimate, and 2024 fires caused record primary-forest damage.

Headlines can sound contradictory because they may describe different countries, different dates, or different definitions. Always specify the place, time window, and whether the metric is clearing or fire impact.

A simple way to read the trend

• For Brazil’s annual clearing total: use INPE PRODES (official, yearly).
• For fast, near-real-time change: use INPE DETER alerts (good for “what’s happening this month?”).
• For basin-wide context and fire impact: use MAAP (good for comparisons across countries and for separating fires from clearing).

Practical implication: Do not publish “Amazon deforestation fell” without stating which Amazon (Brazil vs basin), which time window (Aug–Jul vs calendar year), and whether you mean clearing or fire damage.

Why do INPE DETER and PRODES show different numbers?

Because they are built for different jobs. They are often compared as if they are interchangeable, but they are not. DETER is an alert system, while PRODES is an annual official estimate.

Key detail: Brazil tracks annual Amazon deforestation on an Aug 1 to Jul 31 cycle. That time window can change what a “2024” or “2025” number means.

System	What it measures	Update speed	Best for	Common mistake
INPE PRODES	Official annual deforestation (clearing) totals (higher-resolution)	Yearly	Brazil’s official deforestation rate and long-term trend lines	Using it for week-to-week enforcement signals
INPE DETER	Deforestation alerts (early warning, faster)	Near real time	Rapid response, hotspot detection, “what is happening now?”	Treating alerts as the final annual total
Imazon SAD	Independent deforestation alerts/estimates	Frequent	Cross-checking government signals and trends	Comparing directly to PRODES without aligning time periods
MAAP	Basin-wide deforestation + primary-forest fire impact	Yearly/periodic analyses	Comparing countries; separating clearing vs fire-driven forest loss	Mixing hectares with km2 without converting

Quick unit check: 1 km2 = 100 hectares. Convert units before comparing sources.

What is the difference between deforestation and fire-driven forest loss?

Deforestation is when forest is cleared and converted to another land use (for example, pasture, crops, roads, or mines). It is usually long-lasting.

Fire-driven forest loss (often described as forest degradation) is severe damage to primary forest from burning. It may not always be an immediate land-use change, but it can still drive emissions and increase future clearing risk.

In 2024, MAAP reported record fire impact on primary forests: 2.8 million hectares, with most of it in Brazil and Bolivia. This is why 2024 can look “better” in some clearing charts but “worse” in fire charts.

Why this matters for climate risk

The Amazon is close to a dangerous threshold. Many estimates place a potential tipping point around 20% to 25% forest loss, and some sources estimate about 17% has already been lost. Fire and deforestation together can dry the forest and raise the risk of more burning.

What happened in the Cerrado and why does it matter?

The Cerrado is not the Amazon, but it strongly affects Brazil’s water and climate systems. It is also a major agricultural frontier. INPE’s DETER alert data showed Cerrado deforestation fell to 1,905 km2 (from 2,025 km2 the previous year).

This matters because the Cerrado is a critical water source for major river basins. If you track only Amazon headlines and ignore Cerrado deforestation, you can miss major land-use pressure that affects rainfall, farming, and hydropower.

Where are the hotspots (Brazil states, Colombia parks)?

Brazil: improvements in several states, but one key warning sign

In Brazil’s Amazon, some states saw large reductions in 2025, including Roraima (-37.39%), Rondônia (-33.61%), Acre (-27.62%), and Maranhão (-26.06%). Amazonas and Pará also reduced clearing (-16.93% and -12.40%).

Watch-out: Mato Grosso was reported as the only state with an increase (+25.05%). For supply-chain teams tracking beef and soy risk, state-level changes can matter more than a national average.

Colombia: protected areas under pressure

MAAP reported very high deforestation around Chiribiquete National Park and high deforestation within Tinigua and Macarena National Parks in 2024. MAAP links these losses to the presence and influence of armed groups, which can shift patterns quickly.

Main drivers reported for Colombia’s hotspots: roads, land grabbing (often followed by cattle pasture), and coca cultivation.

What could reverse the trend in 2026?

Brazil’s environment ministry has said there is an expectation of reaching the lowest deforestation rate in the historical series by 2026 if current efforts continue. The key word is “if.” Reversal risks include climate stress and weakened enforcement.

• Fire season severity: More heat and drought can turn cleared areas into major fire sources.
• Enforcement and monitoring capacity: Fewer inspections, slower fines, or weaker monitoring can allow land grabbing to rise.
• Road building and new access routes: Roads often create “fishbone” clearing patterns that spread over time.
• Illegal economies: Illegal logging and illegal gold mining can open new fronts.
• Policy rollbacks: Legal changes that reduce penalties or weaken land protections can speed clearing.
• Armed-group dynamics in parts of the basin: Shifts in control can quickly change deforestation patterns.

Key recent stats (useful for fact-checking)

Metric	Value	Area	Period	Source type
Amazon Basin deforestation	>1.7 million hectares	All Amazon countries	2024	MAAP estimate
Primary-forest fire impact	2.8 million hectares	Mostly Brazil + Bolivia	2024	MAAP estimate (degradation)
Brazil Amazon deforestation rate	5,796 km2 (down 11%)	Brazil Legal Amazon	12 months ending Jul 2025	INPE PRODES (official annual)
Cerrado deforestation alerts	1,905 km2 (down from 2,025 km2)	Brazil Cerrado	Year-over-year DETER alert period	INPE DETER (alerts)

A quick claim-check checklist (for journalists and ESG teams)

1. Define the area: Brazil’s Legal Amazon, the whole Amazon Basin, or the Cerrado.
2. Define the change: deforestation (clearing) or fire-driven forest loss.
3. Align the clock: Aug–Jul, calendar year, or “to date.”
4. Name the system: INPE DETER vs INPE PRODES vs Imazon SAD vs MAAP.
5. Check the unit: km2 vs hectares.
6. Look for hotspots: state-level shifts (Brazil) and protected-area pressure (Colombia).
7. Add the risk note: fires, enforcement, roads, armed groups, legal changes.

Mini-glossary (plain language)

• Amazon deforestation: Clearing forest so it becomes pasture, farms, roads, or other uses.
• Forest degradation: Damage that reduces forest health (for example, fire impact on primary forest) without always becoming a full land-use change right away.
• Primary forest loss: Loss or severe damage in older, intact forest areas.
• Deforestation alerts: Fast signals that clearing may be happening (useful for action, not the final annual total).

FAQ

Is Amazon deforestation declining in 2024?

In some places, yes, but not everywhere. Brazil has shown declines in recent official annual clearing totals, while MAAP still found 2024 was a high-deforestation year across the basin.

Why is Amazon deforestation falling in some areas?

Common reasons include stronger enforcement, faster monitoring, and targeted actions in hotspots. Drivers like cattle pasture expansion, roads, and land grabbing can return if pressure rises.

What are the main drivers of Amazon deforestation?

Major drivers include cattle ranching and pasture expansion, road access, land grabbing, and some illegal activities (like illegal logging and mining). In Colombia, coca cultivation is also a key driver in some fronts.

Which dataset should I cite: INPE DETER or INPE PRODES?

Use INPE PRODES for Brazil’s official annual totals, and INPE DETER for fast alerts and short-term trend signals. For basin-wide comparisons and fire impact, add MAAP.

Next step: If your work depends on this (reporting, ESG, or education), set a monthly reminder to review INPE DETER alerts and a yearly reminder to update baselines with INPE PRODES annual totals.