China's Climate Pledges: A Data-Driven Analysis
China's 2035 pledge sets a 7–10% cut, a historic shift to an absolute target. Experts say it remains far short of what 1.5°C requires.
Short answer
China's new 2035 pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 7–10% from peak levels is a historic move toward an absolute target. Experts at groups like the Climate Action Tracker and Carbon Brief say the pledge is still too small to meet the 1.5°C pathway. In short: it is progress, but not yet enough.
What exactly did China pledge?
In 2025 China announced its first absolute emissions reduction goal for 2035. Public reporting and news sources summarize the pledge as a 7–10% cut in total greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 against peak levels, and the pledge covers CO2 plus other gases like methane and nitrous oxide. See coverage from the BBC, AP, and the New York Times.
Why this matters
- China is the largest single emitter today. Models from expert groups put recent Chinese emissions around 15.8 GtCO2e (excl. LULUCF) in 2024 (CAT).
- A 7–10% cut in China equals a very large absolute decrease in global emissions. The BBC notes that a 10% reduction would be roughly 1.4 GtCO2e—many times the emissions of entire countries.
How experts judge the pledge
Most expert groups welcome the shift to an absolute target but call the ambition low versus the 1.5°C goal. The Climate Action Tracker rates China’s overall policies as "Highly insufficient." Analysis summarized by Carbon Brief and by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) suggests that China would need around a 30% cut from peak by 2035 to align with a 1.5°C pathway.
"China's new target is unlikely to drive down emissions beyond what current policies already imply," reads a CAT press analysis. CAT press release.
Key data points you should know
- Estimated 2024 emissions: ~15.8 GtCO2e (excl. LULUCF) (CAT).
- China's share of global CO2: roughly one-third by production-based accounting (CAT, Bruegel).
- Recent trend: small declines in 2024–2025 driven by fast growth in renewables; Carbon Brief notes a 1% fall in 12 months and a 1.6% fall in Q1 2025 vs a year earlier (Carbon Brief summary via WEF).
- Power sector is nearly 90% of emissions; coal use still dominant but declining in 2025 in some analyses (Carbon Brief briefing).
How the pledge compares with what's needed
Below is a simple comparison of China’s stated pledge and a 1.5°C-aligned benchmark suggested by analysts.
| Metric | China's 2035 pledge | 1.5°C-aligned benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| Percent cut from peak by 2035 | 7–10% | ~30% (analyst consensus) |
| Comments | Historic move to absolute target but modest | Requires faster coal phase-out and deeper cuts in industry |
Why the gap exists
Three main reasons explain why the pledge falls short:
- Mix of target types before 2025: China historically used carbon intensity targets (emissions per GDP), which allow emissions to keep growing as the economy grows. The new pledge is the first clear absolute target for all GHGs (see Carbon Brief).
- Coal dependence and industrial emissions: Heavy industry like cement and steel is emissions-intensive. Cement alone emits over 1.2 GtCO2 per year in China (Carbon Brief).
- Policy vs. implementation: Analysts at CAT and others note the new pledge could be met with existing policies, meaning deeper action is needed to change the trajectory.
Recent signs of progress
There are real wins that could be scaled:
- Fast growth in renewables: China supplies a large share of global solar panels and wind components (Bruegel).
- Power-sector decline in 2025: Studies reported a 1% fall in CO2 in the first half of 2025 as renewables outpaced demand growth (Reuters, Carbon Brief summary).
- Policy tools exist: IEA and others outline roadmaps to carbon neutrality with detailed sector moves (IEA roadmap).
What to watch next
Key indicators to follow over the next 1–5 years:
- Coal consumption trends and announced coal-plant retirements.
- Rate of new solar, wind and nuclear capacity added vs. electricity demand growth (Carbon Brief).
- Detailed NDC text that spells out sectoral targets and methane action—watch government releases and expert analysis.
- Policy moves on heavy industry decarbonisation (cement, steel) and electrification of transport.
FAQ
Will China meet its 2035 pledge?
Experts are mixed. Some think current policy and the clean-energy buildout could get China close to the 7–10% cut. Others, including CAT, say meeting more ambitious pathways requires tougher policies.
Does this change the global 1.5°C math?
Partly. The shift to an absolute target is important. Yet most analysts say the pledge, by itself, does not close the gap to 1.5°C. The world still needs faster cuts in China and elsewhere to meet that goal (Carbon Brief).
Bottom line
China's 2035 pledge is a milestone: it moves from intensity pledges to an absolute cut and covers more gases. But the cut size is modest versus numbers experts say are needed for 1.5°C. Monitoring coal use, clean-power growth, and industry action will show whether China accelerates from this pledge to stronger, real-world cuts. For concise source notes and a one-page fact sheet, consult the Climate Action Tracker, Carbon Brief, IEA and CREA links cited above.
Sources: Climate Action Tracker, Carbon Brief, BBC, Reuters, NYT, Bruegel, Carbon Brief briefing, CAT press, IEA roadmap.
Dr. Verde leads climate research initiatives and translates complex environmental science into actionable insights. Published researcher with expertise in carbon cycle modeling and renewable energy systems.
